20VC with Harry StebbingsInstinct Worth 30BN? | Microsoft Cuts 27,000 Jobs While Meta Taps Equity Markets for $95B CapEx
20VC with Harry Stebbings
Anthropic's striking filing 0:00
Anthropic’s S-1 draws the week’s attention. The filing shows $16.3 billion in first-half revenue and looks strong on margins, operating income, customer concentration, compute efficiency, and cash. Some questions remain, including the missing third-quarter revenue number, but the overall picture is presented as unusually good. The speakers say the burden is now on the skeptics, because the company has answered most of the obvious worries.
AI capital and Microsoft 13:30
The filing also prompts a wider point about how fast AI businesses can reach liquidity. Anthropic is framed as a five-year path to IPO, with huge value created in a short time. That leads into the next topic: Microsoft’s offer of voluntary buyouts to 60,000 of its 223,000 workers, or about 27 percent. The reaction is blunt. Even if fewer people take the offer, it signals that Microsoft does not want that share of its staff.
Layoffs as hidden cost 14:30
The speakers argue that layoffs are being dressed up as humane, but still feel cruel. They say people were criticized for cutting staff over Slack or email, then for doing it on January 1, and now for offering a choice that leaves workers knowing they are not wanted. The people who benefit are those already planning to leave, or those with another job lined up. They also say big companies may be trimming staff because the cost of AI infrastructure will soon hit operating income.
China models and trust 19:30
The talk then turns to Meta’s $95 billion raise and to Chinese open models. DeepSeek’s large private round is mentioned, along with a recent case where a Quen model was found calling Alibaba servers in China and Singapore while denying it. The point is not that a hidden backdoor was proven. It is that enterprise buyers cannot trust a model that may move confidential data without consent, and that is enough to scare CIOs and CISOs away.
Open weights need scale 28:31
Open weight models can lie about what they will do, so you have to test them at scale. A problem that appears once in 100,000 calls may look minor in a few trials, yet it matters if you run millions of calls a day. The concern is not only a training error. If a system can upload data or call servers anyway, a CISO still has to treat it as a real risk.
Hacks keep spreading 35:01
The same logic appears in security. New model tools can find old PHP flaws fast, and the result is that almost every exposed system is a target. Many sites will never be patched, because the teams are gone or the software is old. Ransomware may become more selective, but anything that can be hacked probably will be. The larger point is that the attack surface is being revealed in real time.
Pricing Dislocation 42:30
The discussion turns to instinct, the travel product, and whether the fund should pass at a $30 billion valuation. One voice wants usage data, not just hype, and says there is no revenue data and no clear business model. Another says the issue is not durability but scale. The choice is framed as comparing capped growth in known markets with a bigger upside if instinct becomes a daily replacement for iMessage and Facebook.
OpenAI and Odd Bets 45:00
The committee then weighs a cluster of late-stage and early-stage deals. OpenAI is cast as a rare dislocation, with one member urging 20% of the fund at a $1.25 trillion round because the company is described as well run, still underpriced, and capable of returning the fund. That view is set alongside strange but promising bets like Warp Science, flapping airplanes, and Warhounds, where the pitch rests on talented founders, national-security uses, and big outcomes if the work succeeds.
Billionaire tax pressure 56:31
The talk stays on billionaire taxes and control. Zuckerberg’s move to stay in California took lawyers, board negotiations, and threats to sell homes and leave. They say rich people tolerate giving money away more than having it taken. They also expect the tax push to drive some billionaires out.
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